Are online pack openings worth it? Expected value explained

Short answer: online pack openings are rarely worth it as a way to make money, and often worth it as paid entertainment if you go in with a budget. An online pack opening, or “rip”, is a digital pack you buy on a site. The site reveals a card at random from a pool, and you can usually keep it in a vault, ship it home or sell it back.

Whether a rip is worth it comes down to three questions: what the pack is worth on average, how much of that value you can actually get back, and what the experience is worth to you. This guide walks through each one, with a checklist at the end.

What does expected value mean for a rip?

Expected value (EV) is the average value of a pack over many openings. You get it by multiplying each possible card’s market value by its chance of appearing, then adding the results together.

Here is a made-up pack to show the math. It is not based on any real site’s odds. Say the pack costs $50 and has three outcomes: a 70% chance at a $20 card, a 25% chance at a $60 card and a 5% chance at a $400 card. The EV is (0.70 x 20) + (0.25 x 60) + (0.05 x 400) = 14 + 15 + 20, or $49.

That looks close to the price. But look at where the value sits. About 40% of it comes from the rare $400 card. Seven times out of ten, you pay $50 and get a $20 card. EV describes the long run. It says very little about your next pack.

This is why two packs with the same EV can feel completely different. A pack with a flat spread of mid-value cards is steady. A pack whose EV depends on one chase card will lose money for most people who open it, and pay out big for a few. A pull feed of big hits shows what happened to someone else, not what is likely to happen to you.

How do you work out the EV of a pack yourself?

You can estimate EV for any pack where the site gives you enough information. Follow these steps:

1. List every possible card. Use the pack’s checklist or pool. If the site shows only the chase cards, you cannot finish the calculation.
2. Find the odds. You need a chance for each card or tier. Without published odds, you can only guess.
3. Price each card on the open market. Use recent sold prices for the same card and grade, not the site’s own estimate.
4. Multiply and add. Card value times its chance, summed across the pack, gives the EV.
5. Adjust for how you exit. If you plan to sell back, multiply by the buyback rate. If you plan to ship, subtract shipping and fees.
6. Compare with the price. The gap between your adjusted EV and the pack price is the average cost of one rip.

The free EV calculator in our Rip Room does steps 4 to 6 for you once you enter the odds and values. You can also open a free demo pack there to feel how a spread plays out without spending anything. Demo packs use simulated values, not any real site’s odds.

How does buyback change the math?

Buyback lets you sell a pulled card back to the site, usually for a percentage of what the site estimates the card is worth. If you plan to sell back everything you pull, your real return is roughly the EV multiplied by the buyback rate. With the made-up pack above and a made-up 80% rate, the $49 EV becomes about $39.20 back on a $50 pack.

The rate is only half the story. The other half is whose estimate of value it applies to:

• Courtyard pays 90% of fair market value and uses Card Ladder data to set that value, according to Decrypt. Its terms describe the buyback as a “best-effort offer” that is limited in duration.
• Arena Club pays 90%. Its terms describe this as 100% of its estimated value less a 10% fee. RipRanks warns that Arena Club’s valuations can run above eBay comparables, which would make the effective rate lower against open-market prices.
• Phygitals pays a standard 85% of fair market value, with some packs boosted, but only inside a set window after the pull.
• LastPack pays 100% of its own fair market value, which its terms say may not match published market values. A card you have not shipped within seven days is sold back automatically.
• ClutchPacks does not publish its rate. Affiliate reviews report about 90% of a value ClutchPacks sets itself, and its terms say the offer can be paid partly in promotional credits.
• MNSTR pays 86% to 94% of its own fair market value, depending on the pack, with no time limit.
• PullBox pays a card’s market value in site coins, which can’t be withdrawn as cash or crypto.
• GotYa pays 90% of its own fair market value on graded slabs and 100% on raw cards. Its FAQ and terms call the offer time-limited, while its free-pack page says there is no deadline.
• BOXED pays 100% of a card’s listed gem value at any time, but in gems, which can’t be cashed out.

Our buyback rates comparison puts every site we review side by side, with the windows, cash-out routes and caveats.

Which sites give you enough information to judge value?

To work out EV, you need the odds and the card values. Most sites give you only part of that. Here is what each site we review publishes:

Site	Odds or checklist	Provably fair draw	Buyback
Courtyard	Per-card odds not disclosed in its terms	None found	90%
Arena Club	Checklist with per-card hit rates and a live “Hit Feed”	No	90%
Phygitals	Per-card odds not published in its FAQ	Yes	85%
PackDraw	Not confirmed in our sources	Yes, no third-party audit	100% item exchange
Rip.fun	None we could find	No; “Regular Rip” opens a sealed pack on video	85% (reported)
LastPack	Odds by rarity with value ranges, shown before you buy	Yes, no third-party audit	100% of its own value
ClutchPacks	Full checklist and tier odds for every pack, plus pull statistics	No; every pull is recorded on Polygon	About 90% (reported, not published)
MNSTR	Odds and value ranges for every pack	No	86% to 94%, by pack
PullBox	Odds for every prize in every box	Yes, no third-party audit	Site coins only
GotYa	Odds brackets and expected value for every pack	Claimed in its FAQ; no public verifier found	90% of its own value on slabs
BOXED	Full drop table with every item’s odds	Yes, no third-party audit	100% in gems only

Arena Club’s checklist details come from RipRanks and Fox Business. PackDraw’s draw details come from BetterChecked and PackSpy. The LastPack, ClutchPacks, MNSTR, PullBox, GotYa and BOXED details come from each site’s own pages and terms, and those sites’ odds and values use their own card prices. GotYa sets each pack’s expected value equal to its price, using its own card values, so most pulls are still worth less than the pack. BOXED doesn’t publish a headline return, but the analytics site Unpacked added up its drop tables and found 370 of 392 boxes set to return between 84.5% and 85.5% of their price. A checklist with hit rates lets you estimate EV before you buy. A provably fair draw lets you confirm a result was not changed after you bought, which is a different thing. Our guide to how provably fair rips work explains the gap.

What is the typical EV by site?

We do not copy EV figures from marketing pages or other review sites. Our rip log values every card with the method described on how we rank, and the table below fills in once a site has enough logged rips to publish a figure we can stand behind.

We publish expected value once our team has logged at least 10 rips on a site.

Welcome offers change the math for the packs they cover. Courtyard’s referral program, for example, has run a seasonal promotion that pairs its starter pack with a guaranteed buyback offer. That lowers your real cost on that first pack but does nothing for the packs after it.

What costs do you pay besides the pack price?

The sticker price is not the whole cost. Add up the extras that apply to how you plan to use your cards:

• Shipping. Courtyard: FedEx at cost from the vault; vaulting and insurance free. Arena Club: About $1 per card retrieval plus shipping. Phygitals: the user pays shipping, handling and any taxes on redemption, and the amount is not published. LastPack: Per card, USPS rate shown at checkout; insurance free under $100. ClutchPacks: On request; fees may apply, cost not published. MNSTR: $20 flat plus $5 per card, shown before you pay. PullBox: Priced in coins by weight; US and Canada only, 30-day target. GotYa: At cost, shown before you confirm; ships in 8-10 business days. BOXED: 550 gems (about $5.50) per shipment of up to 15 cards; 2-4 weeks.
• Payment fees. Courtyard says card payments carry “a small fee” while its digital wallet is free.
• Marketplace fees. Courtyard has charged 0% seller and buyer fees since June 2025. Rip.fun’s marketplace fee is 2.5%. GotYa charges a 0% seller fee, and its auctions carry a buyer’s premium. MNSTR has a marketplace but does not publish its fee, and LastPack, PullBox and BOXED have no user-to-user marketplace.
• Cashing out. Buyback credit usually lands in your site balance first. Courtyard lists a $0 withdrawal fee for digital transfers. Arena Club pays out through Stripe Connect to a linked bank account. PackDraw pays out in crypto with a minimum withdrawal, according to BetterChecked. LastPack pays USDC to a Solana wallet, and deposited funds can’t be withdrawn. ClutchPacks pays out through the payment company Coinflow, with USDC payouts reported. MNSTR pays out only in crypto. PullBox has no cash or crypto withdrawal at all. GotYa pays out only to a verified bank account in your name, with a $25 minimum. BOXED’s gems can’t be cashed out, and card value can be withdrawn only as ETH after ID checks and approval, within daily limits.
• Buyback fees. At Arena Club the 10% fee is already inside the buyback rate, so do not subtract it twice. At ClutchPacks, part of an offer can come as promotional credits, which can’t be withdrawn until they are spent.

If you keep your cards in the vault and never ship, shipping costs may never apply. If you plan to hold physical cards, they can matter more than a few points of buyback.

Should you keep your pulls or sell them back?

Decide before you open, because it changes which numbers matter:

• If you keep cards, buyback matters less. Vaulting, insurance, shipping and the grading company behind each slab matter more. Courtyard, for example, offers free vaulting and insurance, while GotYa’s terms say its vaulted cards have no dedicated insurance.
• If you sell back, the buyback rate, the valuation behind it and the window matter most, along with how you withdraw the balance.
• If you sell on a marketplace, compare the site’s fees with the buyback offer. A card can be worth more listed than sold back, but only if someone buys it.

The category you collect changes this too. Our guide to Pokémon vs sports mystery packs covers graded slabs, raw packs and resale options.

When is a rip worth it?

People rip for different reasons. Some want the cards, some want the chance at a chase card and some just enjoy opening packs. A rip tends to make sense when most of these are true:

1. The site publishes odds or a checklist, so you can judge EV before you open.
2. Buyback is high and the valuation behind it is clear, or you plan to keep the cards anyway.
3. Shipping and fees are reasonable for the value of the cards you usually pull.
4. You would be fine with the most likely outcome, not just the best one.
5. You set a budget before you start and you stick to it.

If the only way a pack works out is by hitting the chase card, treat the money as spent on entertainment, not as an investment. To compare sites on these points, start with our best rip sites rankings, or the category lists for Pokémon and sports.

How should you set a budget before you rip?

Pack opening involves chance. Even with a strong buyback rate, there is no guarantee you will get back what you spend. A few habits help:

• Decide on an amount you can afford to lose before you log in, and stop when it is gone.
• Set a time limit as well as a money limit.
• Do not open more packs to win back what you lost on the last ones.
• Do not count buyback credit as winnings. It is money you already spent.

If opening packs stops being fun or starts costing more than you planned, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help. Our responsible play page lists more resources and tools.